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Nov 21

Ford: 2008 NBA Draft class full of freshmen … and one mysterious giant

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The NBA season is only three weeks old, and we’re just beginning to see how last season’s draft prospects such as Kevin Durant and Yi Jianlian are measuring up. The 2008 NBA draft is seven months away. But for NBA scouts, there is no rest. Those focused on the draft have been working since July 1, attending camps and international junior tournaments, breaking down film, talking to coaches and preparing for the next season. And now with the college basketball season and the Euroleague both in action, scouts get to watch the top prospects in live competition. In other words, the 2008 NBA draft season is well under way. So with that in mind, it’s time to revisit our top 100 and take an early look at the draft class of 2008. Several themes are emerging in this draft. After talking with numerous scouts, here’s what we’ve learned:

The Big Three

Boston doesn’t have the only Big Three in basketball. The 2008 draft has its own trio of stars. Last season Greg Oden and Kevin Durant dominated the “Who’s No. 1?” debate the entire season. This season, expect three players to hog most of the attention: , and .

Beasley, in my opinion, is the top prospect in the draft, primarily because of size. In the draft, size matters — in the past 20 years, Allen Iverson is the only No. 1 overall pick in the draft under 6-foot-7. Beasley has an NBA body with unbelievable athleticism and skills for a guy his size. Entering Kansas State, his question marks were attitude and work ethic. But he has received rave reviews from his coaches, and the results to match: His averages of 30 points and 20 rebounds aren’t misprints.

Mayo had the most hype coming out of high school, and the most baggage. He left a bad taste with some scouts toward the end of his senior season when he seemed more interested in showboating than improving as a player. So far the word out of USC is very positive. Mayo has been working hard, avoided keeping an entourage and has shown his potential in the first three games of the season. While he’s averaging five turnovers per game, the rest of the numbers are impressive: 25.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.3 assists per game, with 49 percent shooting from the field and 90 percent from the free-throw line.

Rose doesn’t have the flash of Mayo or Beasley, but he’s going to rival Chris Paul as the best college point guard prospect since Jason Kidd. He combines great size and an amazing feel for the game, plus he is a physical defender. He has winner written all over him — he can take over offensively when his team needs him to, and he’s quickly become the leader on a veteran Memphis squad. I think Rose is the safest bet of the three, but his ceiling is lower than that of Mayo or Beasley.


The Fab Freshmen

Mayo, Beasley and Rose are all freshmen — and so are a number of other players ranked in our top 30.

Last season’s freshman class was amazing, but this season’s group has a chance to be better. Seven of our top 10 draft prospects are freshmen, and another five freshmen are in the top 30. Indiana’s is a potent combo guard who looks like a better version of the Chicago Bulls’ Ben Gordon. One NBA GM who watched Eric Gordon play on opening night said “that guy could immediately start on half the teams in the league [NBA].”

UCLA’s already looks as though he may have the inside track on college player of the year honors after three terrific games for UCLA. While he doesn’t project to be an elite NBA prospect because he lacks size for his position, Love’s basketball IQ and ability to score in the post make him a potential lottery prospect anyway. Ohio State had the best center prospect in college basketball last season, Greg Oden. The Buckeyes may have the best again this season in freshman . Though he’s not classified as an international prospect, he did play in the European Under-18 Championships for the Greek national team this summer, and scouts came away stunned with his play. He averaged 26.5 points, 13.0 rebounds and 3.5 blocked shots per game and walked away as the MVP of the tournament. In his first two games for Ohio State, he’s shown that performance wasn’t a fluke.

Texas A&M center is a great athlete, but he’s relatively raw and scouts have questioned his work ethic. He’s off to a slower start than some, but his per-minute averages are impressive. If he can put it together this season, he’s a candidate for the top five based on his long-range potential. This year’s freshman sleeper is North Carolina State’s . He didn’t get nearly the hype of many other freshman coming into the season, but he’s been spectacular in his first two games and already has one scout comparing him to Tyrus Thomas — in other words, he’s an unheralded, super-athletic freshman forward who could rise quickly up the charts. Currently we have him ranked No. 19, but given his size, athletic ability and talent, he could go much higher if he keeps playing at this pace. Several other freshmen are projected as first-rounders this season, including Syracuse’s , Arizona’s , Oklahoma’s , Gonzaga’s and Florida’s .


Who Is John Riek?

Every year, it seems, there is one intriguing international big man who gets everyone’s attention. To see him, teams usually have to travel around the world. This year, the most intriguing international prospect happens to be playing in Wichedon, Mass. His name is , and he’s a 7-foot-2 Sudanese center who immigrated to the United States in 2005. After playing last season with Our Savior New American School in Centereach, N.Y., Riek burst onto the scene this summer at the LeBron James Skills Academy. The word from inside the gym was that Riek was a phenomenal NBA prospect who dominated everyone he played against. After getting lots of attention from both college coaches and NBA scouts, Riek (who played last season as a high school sophomore) produced documents saying he turned 18 in November and had already completed three years of high school in Ethiopia. Combining that with his year at Our Savior, Riek was ready to go to prep school — and to enter the 2008 draft. There is still some uncertainty as to whether Riek will actually be eligible for the 2008 draft, but the NBA people I spoke with believe he will be. NBA scouts have him in the top 10, and some have him in the top five. “He’s huge, he’s athletic, he has a great motor and the kid goes after everything,” one NBA scout said. “He runs the floor and attacks. His defense, rebounding and shot-blocking are already great. His offense needs work, but it’s more advanced than most kids his size and his age.”

We’ll see. A little perspective is needed here. The history of mysterious international big men is hit and miss (mostly miss). Remember Pavel Podkolzine? Ha Seung Jin? Mohammed Sene? All showed enormous potential, but none has made his mark on the NBA yet. Last season everyone was abuzz about UConn prospect , and he’s been a bust. Yes, Yi Jianlian looks as though he’s panning out, but we had seen what he could do because there was a lot of videotape of him playing. I can see why scouts love Riek. And I can also see why he’ll be an enormous risk, especially compared to players in Division I or in the Euroleague. Regardless, I’ve talked to 10 veteran NBA scouts who all say, reluctantly, that he’s a legitimate lottery prospect. In fact, their reluctance to talk about him makes me believe they may have ranked him higher than they’re letting on. We have him ranked No. 10 on our big board, but he could end up going much higher or much lower. Looks as if we’ll be traveling to Massachusetts this winter.


College Vets

This year’s college veterans are weaker than normal, thanks to a huge defection from underclassmen. Here is a look at a few from each class to watch: Sophomores: Arizona’s , Kansas’ , Florida’s and North Carolina’s are the best of the players who didn’t leave with classmates Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. Stanford’s would be on the list too, but he’s been ruled academically ineligible until at least Dec. 19.

Juniors: This class is weaker, with only a few players projected to go in the first round — KU’s , Memphis’ and North Carolina’s . Seniors: Not much better than the juniors. But two big men, Georgetown’s and Cal’s , could crack the top 10. After that it’s slim pickings, though Oregon’s has started the season very strong.


International Men Of Mystery

In addition to John Riek, there are several interesting international prospects this season.

French swingman probably has the best chance of being a lottery pick. Spain has two top prospects in athletic power forward — a native of the Congo playing in the Spanish league — and . Italian forward has been compared to Toni Kukoc. Big man of Croatia would’ve been a likely late first-rounder had he stayed in the 2007 draft. The biggest sleeper is Serbian big man . He is currently off to a great start in the Euroleague, averaging 21.7 ppg and 7.3 rpg for Partizan. covers the NBA for ESPN Insider.

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